Lebanon : Economic Perspectives 2004

A
- Advertising Agenciess
- Architects

B
- Banks

C
- Car Dealers
- Car Rental
- Casinos
- Commerce
- Consulting
- Cosmetology
- Craft

D
- Data Processing &
Computer Systems
- Decoration &
Furnishing

E
- Editing
- Elementary Schools
- Engineering &
Contracting
- Environment / Waste
Management Services
- Express Delivery

F
- Fashion
- Financial Services
- Food & Beverage
- Furnished Apartments

H
- Health / Beauty
- Higher & Vocational
Training
- Home Appliances
- Hotels 3
- Hotels 4(A)
- Hotels 4(B)
- Hotels 5
- Hotel & Restaurant
Amenities

I
- Industry
- Insurance
- Interior Design /
Decoration
- Internet

J
- Jewelleries

L
- Lighting
- Luxury

M
- Media
- Music

O
- Office Equipment /
Electronics
- Oriental Carpets
- Outside Decoration

P
- Printing
- Promotional Materials

R
- Real Estate
- Recruitment
- Restaurants

S
- Sanitary Wares
- Security
- Services
- Sweets

T
- Taxi
- Telecommunication &
Mobile Phones
- Transport
- Travel Agencies
- Technical Studies

W
- Watches
- Water Treatment

© ebizproduction 2006
Tel : (+961) 3 577863

Add your company
to this site

....................................................................................................................................

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW -

	Government
	Economic Overview

Economic Perspectives 2004

....................................................................................................................................

PERSPECTIVES 2004

This annual workout has become an obligation. Every December the best economists try to find a way out of uncertainty and predict the forthcoming economic trends for the coming year. But there are at least four different scenarios…

International Agencies Forecast
Over the past few months, several International Agencies specialised in finance, country risk or economic forecast have issued their forecasts for Lebanon in 2004. Here’s a summary :
Source	Indicator
Business Monitor International	Nominal GDP 18,1 Bn $
Economist Intelligence Unit Institute of International Finance Business Monitor International Merrill Lynch - Pessimistic Scenario - Optimistic Scenario	Real GDP growth 2,9 % 2,0 % 3,1 % 2,5 % 3,0 %
Institute of International Finance	Inflation 1,9 %
Merrill Lynch - Pessimistic Scenario - Optimistic Scenario	Average Interests rates 6,1 % 5,3 %
Economist Intelligence Unit	Exports FOB 1,3 Bn$
Economist Intelligence Unit	Imports FOB 6,3 Bn$
Institute of International Finance	Current Balance Deficit (%GDP) 24,5 %
Institute of International Finance	External Debt 18,5 Bn $
Institute of International Finance	External Debt (% GDP) 94,5 %
Institute of International Finance	Public Debt (gross) 36,2 Mds $
Business Monitor International	Public Debt (net) 30,5 Mds $
Institute of International Finance	Public Debt (gross) (% GDP) 185,3 %
Business Monitor International	Public Debt (net) (% GDP) 168,2 %
Institute of International Finance	Public Income (%GDP) 24,1 %
Institute of International Finance	Public expenses (%GDP) 39 %
Economist Intelligence Unit Institute of International Finance	Budget deficit (%GDP) 8,5 % 14,9 %
Merrill Lynch - Pessimistic Scenario - Optimistic Scenario	Primary Balance (%GDP) 3,5 % 4,5 %
Business Monitor International	Current Balance (%GDP) 7,5 %
Business Monitor International	Exchange rate (LL/$) 1450
Merrill Lynch - Pessimistic Scenario - Optimistic Scenario	Income generated by privatisations / titrisations 0,6 Bn$ 2,5 Bn$

The local and regional political instability makes the economic forecast difficult. On one hand the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iraq, presidential election on the other.
The day to day economic life of the Lebanese could well be endangered, the interaction between the politics and the economics is at stake.

Results 2003

Obviously 2003 results will affect 2004 results. How ? In the light of the Paris II conference and the related state commitments, the year 2003 can be considered as a success or as a failure.
The catastrophe that was predicted in 2002 didn’t occur, at least on the short term.
The indicators show an improvement in the real economy fabric.
The GDP is expected to rise by 2.5 or 3% in 2003 after a quasi stagnation in 2001 and 2002.
This translates into :
- Substantial raise in industrial exports.
- The number of tourists and their average expenses rose significantly.
- Tangible increase of the banks’ consolidated balance sheets, especially regarding the total of deposits (14% increase during the first nine months).
- The Lebanese Pound exchange rate remains stable.
- Stable prices (inflation of 3-4%)

Fifty Fifty

On the public finance level, the « half success/ half failure » is dismal. According to the Banque du Liban governor, the initiatives taken by the donating countries, the banks association and the Banque du Liban allowed a 900 M$ alleviation of the debt service.

These initiatives have led to primary surplus of 1 000 Billions of LP (instead of the 1 400 forecasted in the 2003 budget). These rather positive indicators should not erase the fear of the budget deficit rate expected to reach 40% instead of 26% forecast.

The service of the debt is also a major concern as it should reach 4 800 Bn LP by the end of 2003 (it was forecast at 5800 Bn LP before Paris II).

Perspectives 2004

The main challenge in 2004 will be to smoother the impact of the unfavourable environment on economic, financial and monetary grounds.
During Paris II, Lebanon has committed itself to a 3% GDP growth rate in 2004.
Fulfilling this commitment will depend on:
- The strengths and weaknesses resulting of 2003.
- The way the Iraqi crisis will affect economies in the region.

Iraq will not play its traditional role of partner for the Lebanese economy in 2004. The Iraqi situation also affects Gulf countries but this might attract direct investments in some key sectors of the Lebanese economy, namely tourism and real estate.
But progresses will have to be done on the legislative and administrative levels if Lebanon is to take is share of these foreign investments.

Good solutions

Despite these negative aspects, the situation might be tempered by maintaining and developing some of the following governmental initiatives :

- Credit lines granted to the productive sector by Kafalat or BDL.
- EU program for industrial modernization.
- Social development programs sponsored by the World Bank and the EU.
- Acceleration of CDR’s three year plan.
- Implementation of the territory make up director scheme.
- And above all, the project to spread the private sector’s debt.
Unfortunately, this scheme still depends on economic and politic factors.

Three priorities

Three important issues will impact the fulfilment of the 2004 budget’s objectives :

- Interest rates : even though BDL created a commission in charge of interest rates survey and orientation, the success of the commission is not guaranteed.
- The second issue addresses the purchasing power’s capability to face the current tax rate which increased substantially over the past years.
- The increase of the private sector’s debt. The fiscal incidence on the sector is becoming more and more difficult to bear.

The private sector’s debt jumped from 40 to 80% of the GDP in 10 years.

Still a lot to be done..

....................................................................................................................................

BUSINESS
INFORMATION

Business News

Business Forum

Business Opportunities

Fairs & Exhibitions

Useful Addresses

Currency Exchange Rates

GENERAL
INFORMATION

FIRST LEBANON
INFORMATION

WEBSITE SELECTION

Ringtones Lebanon

Pictures messages Lebanon

Screensavers Lebanon

Mobile videos Lebanon


Flowers delivery Lebanon

Oriental food specialty

Lebanese wine
Lebanese food


Real estate agency Beirut


Hotel Hamra-Beirut

Car rental Beirut-Lebanon

Reservation for your travel in Lebanon

Association des français de l'étranger -section Liban



Diamond jewelry Lebanon

Jewelry manufacturer Lebanon

Jewelry watches-Swiss made watches

Diamond Swiss watches

Modern and comtemporary jewelry

Byzantine & Phoenician jewelry

Jewelry creator
Jewelry creation



Oriental, classical and traditional decoration
Hand made furniture

Construction management Lebanon

Projects development


Shoes manufacturer and distributor Lebanon

Sole agent of Philips & Whirlpool in Lebanon
Refrigerator manufacturer

Web development, promotion and hosting


Printing press services


Paper products


Insurance company Lebanon



Rent villas France

Hotels all over Syria
Hotel management company
Wedding dresses Lebanon


Baud telecom company


University Lebanon

Arab Media News